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Farmer sentiment held steady in September, as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose just 1 point to a reading of 126. However, there was a shift in producers’ perceptions of current conditions and their expectations for the future.
The Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 122, while the Index of Future Expectations climbed 5 points to 128. The survey was conducted following the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s release of the September Crop Production report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
These reflected farmers’ concerns about current conditions, particularly over record-high corn and soybean yields, which were pressuring crop prices. At the same time, optimism about the future was supported by farmers’ belief that U.S. policy is “headed in the right direction” and by expectations that potential government support, like the 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP), will provide payments to farmers in compensation for lower commodity prices. The barometer survey took place Sept. 15-19.
“High production costs and weak crop prices are pressuring farm incomes on U.S. crop farms,” said Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “A large majority of U.S. farmers expect government support to bolster farm incomes if crop prices remain weak.”
Amidst growing concerns about tariffs, most farmers expect potential government support to help cushion the impact. In September, 83% of producers said a program similar to the 2019 MFP is likely if a trade war drives commodity prices lower, with 62% calling it “very likely” and another 21% saying it is “likely.”
Purdue University
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